"Dangerous new nuclear arms race" in South Asia: report

Both India and Pakistan are modernizing and expanding their arsenals against the backdrop of a deteriorating global arms-control environment.

BERLIN (News Aggregation Desk) – The 2025 edition of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook paints a stark picture of growing nuclear arms race in South Asia, where both India and Pakistan are modernizing and expanding their arsenals against the backdrop of a deteriorating global arms-control environment.

According to the report, India has increased its nuclear warhead inventory from 172 in 2024 to 180 by early 2025, continuing a steady upward trajectory in its nuclear development. Pakistan, meanwhile, has maintained a stockpile of approximately 170 warheads. However, SIPRI researchers point out that Islamabad is steadily accumulating fissile material and enhancing its delivery systems, which suggests the potential for further growth in the coming years.

Both countries are investing heavily in next-generation delivery platforms. India, in particular, has begun deploying "canisterised" missile systems, which allow warheads to remain mated and ready for launch even in peacetime — significantly reducing launch time. The country has also successfully tested advanced missile platforms such as the Agni-P, with a range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers, and the Agni-5 intercontinental ballistic missile, which is now reportedly MIRV-capable (i.e., able to carry multiple warheads). Strengthening its nuclear triad, India has also advanced its naval deterrence capabilities, commissioning its second nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, INS Arighat, and planning further expansion of its submarine fleet.

Pakistan continues to enhance its own delivery platforms, focusing on short- and medium-range ballistic and cruise missiles. Its steady production of fissile material points to an intent to expand its nuclear stockpile over the coming decade. SIPRI emphasizes that this trend, combined with tactical nuclear capabilities, gives Pakistan the ability to counterbalance India’s growing conventional superiority.

The Yearbook also highlights a brief military skirmish between India and Pakistan in May 2025 as a case study in nuclear risk. According to SIPRI researcher Matt Korda, the clash involved disinformation and speculative strikes near nuclear-related infrastructure. These developments “risked turning a conventional conflict into a nuclear crisis,” he warned, underscoring the dangers of rapid escalation in a region with limited crisis communication mechanisms.

Zooming out to the global picture, SIPRI estimates that there were 12,241 nuclear warheads globally as of January 2025. Of these, around 9,614 are in military stockpiles for potential use, and approximately 3,912 are deployed on missiles or with operational forces. Alarmingly, about 2,100 warheads are on high operational alert — primarily in the United States and Russia.

China is also a growing concern in the nuclear domain. Its arsenal has expanded to an estimated 600 warheads, with SIPRI noting an annual increase of roughly 100 warheads in recent years. In addition, China is constructing approximately 350 new missile silos, a scale of expansion not seen since the Cold War. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia continue to hold over 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, with approximately 5,459 and 5,177 warheads, respectively.

All nine nuclear-armed states are currently engaged in efforts to modernize their arsenals. At the same time, global arms control is weakening. Treaties like the New START — set to expire in February 2026 — face an uncertain future, and no new multilateral frameworks have emerged to replace expiring agreements.

SIPRI concludes that nuclear risks in South Asia are growing due to both the scale and nature of modernization, as well as the absence of meaningful bilateral or multilateral dialogue. Globally, tensions are rising as new technologies, more alert postures, and fewer legal restraints drive a shift back toward Cold War–like dynamics. The institute warns that without new treaties, confidence-building measures, or crisis hotlines, the world — especially volatile regions like South Asia — could be headed toward increased instability and miscalculation.