Pakistan treads a tight rope as the region goes up in flames
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have as of September 2025 a Nato-style mutual defence pact: an attack on either country would be considered an attack on the other
As tensions in the Middle East escalate amid the widening confrontation between Israel/the United States (US) and Iran, Pakistan finds itself in a familiar but increasingly precarious position: balancing relationships across rival geopolitical camps while hoping the fire next door does not spread across its own borders.
Islamabad’s foreign policy has long relied on siding with Saudi Arabia while also balancing relations with Iran. But the current regional climate is testing that balancing act more than usual.
Pakistan maintains deep military and economic ties with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, an uneasy but necessary relationship with Iran along its western border, and a complicated strategic partnership with Washington. Each of these relationships now pulls Islamabad in different directions as the Middle East edges closer to open confrontation.
For Pakistan, the challenge is not simply diplomatic. It is structural.
Mutual-defence pact with Saudi Arabia
Pakistan’s relationship with Saudi Arabia goes far beyond diplomatic courtesies. The two states maintain extensive military cooperation, and Islamabad has historically stationed troops and advisers in the Kingdom.
More importantly, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have as of September 2025 a so called Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) reportedly resembling NATO’s Article 5 logic: an attack on either country would be considered an attack on the both.
The commitment to Saudi Arabia’s security has long served as a pillar of Pakistan’s strategic partnership with the Gulf.
But it also creates a difficult scenario if tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia escalate into direct conflict. In such a situation, Islamabad could face enormous pressure to stand firmly — also militarily — on Riyadh’s side.
That would place Pakistan in direct confrontation with a neighbor it cannot afford to antagonize.
Tehran: the neighbor that cannot be ignored
Pakistan shares a long and often uneasy border with Iran, stretching across the restive province of Balochistan. The relationship has been marked by periodic tensions, cross-border militant activity, and mutual suspicion.
Yet despite these frictions, Pakistan has consistently avoided aligning openly against Tehran. There is a simple strategic reason for this: Pakistan has no interest in destabilizing Iran.
Islamabad’s security planners would share the geopolitical interest of China and Russia: the worst-case scenario would be a collapse of the current Iranian political order followed by the emergence of a pro-Western or pro-Israel government on Pakistan’s western flank.
Such a shift would fundamentally alter the region’s geopolitical balance and introduce a potentially hostile alignment along Pakistan’s border.
In that sense, Pakistan’s strategic preference is clear — stability in Iran, even if relations remain uneasy.
A western front already active
Complicating this regional calculus is the fact that Pakistan is already managing a volatile western security environment.
The military is currently engaged in operations along the Afghan border under Operation Ghazab lil Haq (“Righteous Fury”), targeting militant networks that Islamabad says operate from Afghan territory.
Relations with the Taliban government in Kabul have grown increasingly strained, with Pakistan accusing Afghan authorities of supporting the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
This has effectively created an active security front along Pakistan’s western border — one that already consumes military resources and strategic attention.
Any escalation involving Iran would therefore introduce a second layer of instability along that same frontier.
Economic fragility
Pakistan’s geopolitical balancing act is further constrained by economic realities.
The country remains heavily dependent on imported energy, making it particularly vulnerable to disruptions in Middle Eastern oil markets. A major regional war could send petroleum prices soaring — a scenario that Pakistan’s fragile economy is ill-equipped to absorb.
The Gulf also remains a critical economic lifeline. Millions of Pakistani workers are employed across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and other Gulf states, sending significant amount of foreign exchange in remittances back home each year.
A wider regional conflict would not only threaten energy supplies but also the economic stability of Pakistan’s diaspora workforce.
In short, Pakistan has significant exposure to Middle Eastern instability with very little strategic leverage over its course.
The ever-present India factor
All of this unfolds against the backdrop of Pakistan’s enduring rivalry with India. It was only less than a year ago that the military conflict — Operation Sindoor and Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos — between the nuclear powers put the world on edge.
While the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir remains relatively calm, the broader relationship between Islamabad and New Delhi continues to be defined by diplomatic hostility, periodic military signaling, and an ongoing battle for narrative dominance in international forums.
For Pakistan’s strategic planners, the possibility of managing heightened tensions with India while instability grows along both western borders represents a deeply uncomfortable strategic scenario.
Strategic ambiguity as policy
Pakistan’s likely response to the current regional crisis will follow a familiar pattern: careful neutrality paired with quiet strategic hedging.
Islamabad will continue to reassure Saudi Arabia of its security commitments while avoiding any steps that could provoke direct confrontation with Iran.
At the same time, Pakistan will keep diplomatic channels open with Washington, aware that its economic stability remains tied in part to Western financial institutions.
It is a balancing act Pakistan has performed before — but rarely under such complex regional conditions. And as time goes on and the war widens, Pakistan may just have to pick a side, which for all purposes would be against Iran in order to defend Saudi Arabia.
A nightmare scenario which will have lasting impacts since Pakistan is home to the second largest Shia Muslim population in the world. A large part of the community feels spiritually aligned to the Iranian supreme leader.
For now, Pakistan is still walking the rope.
The question is how much longer the rope will hold.